..finally comes to an end. Yes, I am talking about the just concluded general elections in India. But, the drama has just started to unfold as the counting is about to begin in less than 48 hours. What strikes me is the following things:
- Opportunism and unethicality have been redefined in these elections by both the main parties, more so by the Congress party. Imagine this: they are open to dumping DMK in favor of ADMK if the latter sweeps the state. They dont mind dumping Lalu/Paswan if they have Nitish by their side. They are pretty much acting like a political whore willing to sleep with anyone or everyone to keep the BJP out. BJP, although not sin-free by any standards, is not stooping to such lows at least. The reason this is unethical is because of a fundamental difference in the way Congress and BJP get their seats in the states. BJP's major gain is in the states where it has a direct fight with the congress (MP, Chhatisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand etc.. except Rajasthan), whereas Congress' major gain is in those states where it fights regional state parties (Kerala, Punjab). Therefore, Congress is literally cheating the electorate by fighting directly against those regional parties and then tieing up with them to form a government at the center. In the BJP's case, atleast they are not in a direct fight with any regional party in most of the states. That is one difference to measure the desperation of Congress. It's an eww-inducer.
- Secularism: enough has been said of secularism and most policitical parties who claim to be secular dont even know what that means. I have no idea why BJP and its allies are branded as communal. Because of the Godhra riots? Hindu-Muslim riots post Babri demolition? How about the Sikh riots orchestrated by the State? And the Bhagalpur riots? Why shouldnt the Congress be termed communal for that? My point is: secularism is a totally convenient escape-route for non-BJP parties in the absense of any relevant issue to talk about. What happened in Godhra was gross and Modi should have been sacked for that. But that doesnt make NDA a communal alliance. If Congress can blame the NDA government at the center for not controlling Godhra riots, it should also take the blame for not controlling post-Babri riots. A debate on communalism can easily turn into a pissing-game where each of the major political parties can be branded communal. It's a non-issue. Muslims were as secure during the Vajpayee regime as in any other regime in the history of free India.
But why do people forget the divide created by Congress based on caste? Is that not communal? The very fact that even in 21st century someone's probability to enroll in a top university is decided, to a great extent, by his/her caste, is a shame .And Congress is directly responsible for this divide. That, imho, has a more adverse impact on the youth of the country than an occasional communal disharmony. And guess what, if it continues for centuries, the divide has a far-reaching effect than one could imagine. Death-toll is not the only way to gauge communalism as some people tend to do. Look at how the reservation policy has created a rift between the upper caste and backward caste students in engg colleges? Is THAT not communal?
- 2 ways to win an election- Performance and/or social engineering: For any political party already in power, the easiest way to win an election is to perform. Simple. Nothing fancy. Look at Nitish Kumar. No hype, no hoopla. A disciplined administration and Bihar is 'rising' (atleast relatively). Ditto for Gujarat, Delhi, MP, Chhatisgarh. All these governments have not b/c they belonged to a particular political party but only b/c of a disciplined and focused effort to bring on a visibly positive change in the lives of the people. This is the only encouraging sign to me in the whole election. Atleast the ruling political parties will draw a leaf from these example and will perform rather than resort to opportunistic alliances that ridicule the voters' choice.
Next is social engineering. Someone like Mayawati can afford to get sweeping majority without any history of performance merely on the basis of social engineering. Merge the dalits with the brahmins and the result is a huge majority. Ditto for Lalu/Paswan. But they forget quite conveniently that anti-incumbency wave is predominant for a non-performing government despite this social-remix. Look at BSP's position in this election.
There is a 3rd kind. The left. It defies my imagination how they managed to win every election in Bengal since the last 28 years or so. Did they somehow magically convince the voters that they are the only saviors of the poor? Were the voters that naive? To gauge the extent to which Left has mis-governed Bengal, one just needs to compare Kolkata with metros like Delhi. The proof of pudding is in the eating. My best guess is, voters had no alternative..Left got the advantage of the TINA (there is no alternative) factor. Congress and Trinamool were equally disorganized at the grass root level in Bengal, and the poor saw no hope in these 'other' parties.
The bad thing about democracy is that people with little or zero knowledge also have as much as say as someone who is amazingly knowledgable. I am sure BJP combine would have won hands down if this glitch was taken away, but that's a moot point.
I am personally not a big fan of either BJP or Congress. But I just hope BJP+ comes back to power this time. Not because they are underdogs, but I think Congress has gone a bit overboard in wooing its future alliance partners and it has opened its door for one and all; even those that it DIRECTLY fought against in the election. That desperation doesnt augur well for the country. BJP, therefore, is the lesser evil.
- Opportunism and unethicality have been redefined in these elections by both the main parties, more so by the Congress party. Imagine this: they are open to dumping DMK in favor of ADMK if the latter sweeps the state. They dont mind dumping Lalu/Paswan if they have Nitish by their side. They are pretty much acting like a political whore willing to sleep with anyone or everyone to keep the BJP out. BJP, although not sin-free by any standards, is not stooping to such lows at least. The reason this is unethical is because of a fundamental difference in the way Congress and BJP get their seats in the states. BJP's major gain is in the states where it has a direct fight with the congress (MP, Chhatisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand etc.. except Rajasthan), whereas Congress' major gain is in those states where it fights regional state parties (Kerala, Punjab). Therefore, Congress is literally cheating the electorate by fighting directly against those regional parties and then tieing up with them to form a government at the center. In the BJP's case, atleast they are not in a direct fight with any regional party in most of the states. That is one difference to measure the desperation of Congress. It's an eww-inducer.
- Secularism: enough has been said of secularism and most policitical parties who claim to be secular dont even know what that means. I have no idea why BJP and its allies are branded as communal. Because of the Godhra riots? Hindu-Muslim riots post Babri demolition? How about the Sikh riots orchestrated by the State? And the Bhagalpur riots? Why shouldnt the Congress be termed communal for that? My point is: secularism is a totally convenient escape-route for non-BJP parties in the absense of any relevant issue to talk about. What happened in Godhra was gross and Modi should have been sacked for that. But that doesnt make NDA a communal alliance. If Congress can blame the NDA government at the center for not controlling Godhra riots, it should also take the blame for not controlling post-Babri riots. A debate on communalism can easily turn into a pissing-game where each of the major political parties can be branded communal. It's a non-issue. Muslims were as secure during the Vajpayee regime as in any other regime in the history of free India.
But why do people forget the divide created by Congress based on caste? Is that not communal? The very fact that even in 21st century someone's probability to enroll in a top university is decided, to a great extent, by his/her caste, is a shame .And Congress is directly responsible for this divide. That, imho, has a more adverse impact on the youth of the country than an occasional communal disharmony. And guess what, if it continues for centuries, the divide has a far-reaching effect than one could imagine. Death-toll is not the only way to gauge communalism as some people tend to do. Look at how the reservation policy has created a rift between the upper caste and backward caste students in engg colleges? Is THAT not communal?
- 2 ways to win an election- Performance and/or social engineering: For any political party already in power, the easiest way to win an election is to perform. Simple. Nothing fancy. Look at Nitish Kumar. No hype, no hoopla. A disciplined administration and Bihar is 'rising' (atleast relatively). Ditto for Gujarat, Delhi, MP, Chhatisgarh. All these governments have not b/c they belonged to a particular political party but only b/c of a disciplined and focused effort to bring on a visibly positive change in the lives of the people. This is the only encouraging sign to me in the whole election. Atleast the ruling political parties will draw a leaf from these example and will perform rather than resort to opportunistic alliances that ridicule the voters' choice.
Next is social engineering. Someone like Mayawati can afford to get sweeping majority without any history of performance merely on the basis of social engineering. Merge the dalits with the brahmins and the result is a huge majority. Ditto for Lalu/Paswan. But they forget quite conveniently that anti-incumbency wave is predominant for a non-performing government despite this social-remix. Look at BSP's position in this election.
There is a 3rd kind. The left. It defies my imagination how they managed to win every election in Bengal since the last 28 years or so. Did they somehow magically convince the voters that they are the only saviors of the poor? Were the voters that naive? To gauge the extent to which Left has mis-governed Bengal, one just needs to compare Kolkata with metros like Delhi. The proof of pudding is in the eating. My best guess is, voters had no alternative..Left got the advantage of the TINA (there is no alternative) factor. Congress and Trinamool were equally disorganized at the grass root level in Bengal, and the poor saw no hope in these 'other' parties.
The bad thing about democracy is that people with little or zero knowledge also have as much as say as someone who is amazingly knowledgable. I am sure BJP combine would have won hands down if this glitch was taken away, but that's a moot point.
I am personally not a big fan of either BJP or Congress. But I just hope BJP+ comes back to power this time. Not because they are underdogs, but I think Congress has gone a bit overboard in wooing its future alliance partners and it has opened its door for one and all; even those that it DIRECTLY fought against in the election. That desperation doesnt augur well for the country. BJP, therefore, is the lesser evil.
2 comments:
Excellent analysis. I agree with 100% of what you've said, esp secularism. All parties are communal - at least at the grassroots level - the caste, religion of the candidate matters 10x more than their agenda.
Re: the results, I think Congress will return to power with Jayalalitha's support, which she wont provide until the last minute and which will come with a rider that Cong withdraw support for the DMK govt in TN. Without Cong's seats in the state assembly, DMK will lose majority by a long shot. Fresh state elections would be called and J would become CM of TN. Once that's done, she'll pull the rug out from under the Congress at the Center and bring the BJP to power.
The BJP's biggest weakness is the 80-year old PM candidate who no one seems to remember anything about except that he had a chariot rally to Ayodhya once. I think overall, despite the Godhra incident, 9/10 people I've spoken to want Modi as the PM. He is perhaps the only politician that seems to know how to develop an economy.
ITG: I like your 2nd para. J is a total drama queen. If that really happens, would be a classic use-n-throw :) The family-dhaaba needs to be shut down somehow.
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